Jumlah Barang yang dimuat
di Bandara Utama Polonia (ton)
Tahun 2008-2018
Ø Data bulanan jumlah barang yang dimuat di Bandara Utama Polonia pada bulan Januari 2008 hingga Desember 2018.
Ø Ø Data in sampel :
Tahun |
Bulan |
Polonia |
2008 |
Januari |
260 |
2008 |
Februari |
190 |
2008 |
Maret |
216 |
2008 |
April |
265 |
2008 |
Mei |
253 |
2008 |
Juni |
273 |
2008 |
Juli |
260 |
2008 |
Agustus |
240 |
2008 |
September |
337 |
2008 |
Oktober |
302 |
2008 |
November |
445 |
2008 |
Desember |
312 |
2009 |
Januari |
950 |
2009 |
Februari |
1050 |
2009 |
Maret |
1144 |
2009 |
April |
856 |
2009 |
Mei |
811 |
2009 |
Juni |
929 |
2009 |
Juli |
1098 |
2009 |
Agustus |
1755 |
2009 |
September |
888 |
2009 |
Oktober |
828 |
2009 |
November |
759 |
2009 |
Desember |
1028 |
2010 |
Januari |
1012 |
2010 |
Februari |
1417 |
2010 |
Maret |
795 |
2010 |
April |
765 |
2010 |
Mei |
981 |
2010 |
Juni |
1094 |
2010 |
Juli |
1244 |
2010 |
Agustus |
1298 |
2010 |
September |
1017 |
2010 |
Oktober |
1169 |
2010 |
November |
1311 |
2010 |
Desember |
1578 |
2011 |
Januari |
1351 |
2011 |
Februari |
1531 |
2011 |
Maret |
1635 |
2011 |
April |
1373 |
2011 |
Mei |
1251 |
2011 |
Juni |
2069 |
2011 |
Juli |
1327 |
2011 |
Agustus |
1262 |
2011 |
September |
1079 |
2011 |
Oktober |
1250 |
2011 |
November |
1400 |
2011 |
Desember |
1615 |
2012 |
Januari |
2171 |
2012 |
Februari |
1531 |
2012 |
Maret |
1549 |
2012 |
April |
1116 |
2012 |
Mei |
1133 |
2012 |
Juni |
1243 |
2012 |
Juli |
1623 |
2012 |
Agustus |
1263 |
2012 |
September |
1317 |
2012 |
Oktober |
1294 |
2012 |
November |
1563 |
2012 |
Desember |
1903 |
2013 |
Januari |
2017 |
2013 |
Februari |
1570 |
2013 |
Maret |
1068 |
2013 |
April |
1470 |
2013 |
Mei |
1357 |
2013 |
Juni |
1614 |
2013 |
Juli |
1375 |
2013 |
Agustus |
2036 |
2013 |
September |
1315 |
2013 |
Oktober |
1546 |
2013 |
November |
1149 |
2013 |
Desember |
1449 |
2014 |
Januari |
1224 |
2014 |
Februari |
1348 |
2014 |
Maret |
1425 |
2014 |
April |
1385 |
2014 |
Mei |
1014 |
2014 |
Juni |
1461 |
2014 |
Juli |
1256 |
2014 |
Agustus |
1545 |
2014 |
September |
1646 |
2014 |
Oktober |
1336 |
2014 |
November |
1186 |
2014 |
Desember |
1284 |
2015 |
Januari |
1192 |
2015 |
Februari |
926 |
2015 |
Maret |
1024 |
2015 |
April |
996 |
2015 |
Mei |
1089 |
2015 |
Juni |
1133 |
2015 |
Juli |
1497 |
2015 |
Agustus |
1764 |
2015 |
September |
1373 |
2015 |
Oktober |
1085 |
2015 |
November |
1271 |
2015 |
Desember |
1543 |
2016 |
Januari |
1461 |
2016 |
Februari |
1166 |
2016 |
Maret |
1169 |
2016 |
April |
1173 |
2016 |
Mei |
1193 |
2016 |
Juni |
1707 |
2016 |
Juli |
1439 |
2016 |
Agustus |
1811 |
2016 |
September |
1883 |
2016 |
Oktober |
1519 |
2016 |
November |
1542 |
2016 |
Desember |
1235 |
2017 |
Januari |
2155 |
2017 |
Februari |
2003 |
2017 |
Maret |
2362 |
2017 |
April |
1910 |
2017 |
Mei |
1733 |
2017 |
Juni |
1470 |
2017 |
Juli |
1665 |
2017 |
Agustus |
1960 |
2017 |
September |
1429 |
2017 |
Oktober |
1206 |
2017 |
November |
1615 |
2017 |
Desember |
2236 |
2018 |
Januari |
2186 |
2018 |
Februari |
1723 |
2018 |
Maret |
1582 |
2018 |
April |
1410 |
2018 |
Mei |
1562 |
2018 |
Juni |
1287 |
2018 |
Juli |
1644 |
2018 |
Agustus |
1689 |
2018 |
September |
1622 |
2018 |
Oktober |
1448 |
2018 |
November |
1639 |
2018 |
Desember |
1915 |
Ø Ø Data out sampel
Tahun |
Bulan |
Polonia |
2019 |
Januari |
1705 |
2019 |
Februari |
1100 |
2019 |
Maret |
1181 |
2019 |
April |
1036 |
2019 |
Mei |
1227 |
2019 |
Juni |
938 |
2019 |
Juli |
3412 |
2019 |
Agustus |
1283 |
2019 |
September |
1228 |
2019 |
Oktober |
1261 |
2019 |
November |
1271 |
2019 |
Desember |
1435 |
> library(forecast) > library(FitAR) > library(lmtest) > library(tseries) > bandara <- read.csv(file = "C:/Users/ME/Documents/Semester 4 /Analisis Runtun Waktu/bandara.csv",
header=TRUE) > #data barang bandara utama > bandara <- read.csv(file = "C:/Users/ME/Documents/Semester 4 /Analisis Runtun Waktu/bandara.csv", header=TRUE) > bandara > str(bandara) 'data.frame': 132 obs. of 7 variables: $ Tahun : int 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 ... $ Bulan : Factor w/ 13 levels "Agustus","April" ,..: 5 4 9 2 10 7 6 1 13 12 ... $ Polonia : int 260 190 216 265 253 273 260 240 337 302 ... $ Soekarno.Hatta: int 7913 7166 13060 10367 10172 6856 9615 10045 12056 9930 ... $ Juanda : int 689 520 749 506 715 658 644 601 517 669 ... $ Ngurah.Rai : int 2052 1627 3111 2761 2506 1867 1496 1700 2185 2353 ... $ Hasanudin : int NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ...
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Ø Plot asli
> ts.plot(bandara$Polonia,main="Jumlah barang Polonia" , ylab= "Ton") |
> acf(bandara$Polonia)
|
> adf.test(bandara$Polonia) Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test data: bandara$Polonia Dickey-Fuller = -3.0067, Lag order = 5, p-value = 0.1579 alternative hypothesis: stationary |
· Hipotesis
H0 : Data memuat unit root (tidak stasioner)
H1 : Data tidak memuat unit root (stasioner)
· Taraf signifikansi :
· Statistik uji : ADF test
· Kriteria keputusan : H0 ditolak jika p-value < α = 0.05
· Kesimpulan : Oleh karena p-value = 0.1579 > α = 0.05, maka H0 diterima sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa data memuat unit root (tidak stasioner).
> dlbarang <- diff(log(bandara$Polonia)) > dlbarang > dbarang <- diff(bandara$Polonia) > dbarang > adf.test(dbarang) Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test data: dbarang Dickey-Fuller = -7.2231, Lag order = 5, p-value = 0.01 alternative hypothesis: stationary Warning message: In adf.test(dbarang) : p-value smaller than printed p-value > adf.test(dlbarang) Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test data: dlbarang Dickey-Fuller = -5.6883, Lag order = 5, p-value = 0.01 alternative hypothesis: stationary Warning message: In adf.test(dlbarang) : p-value smaller than printed p-value |
· Hipotesis
H0 :
Data memuat unit root (tidak
stasioner)
H1 :
Data tidak memuat unit root (stasioner)
· Taraf signifikansi : α = 0.05
· Statistik uji : ADF test
· Kriteria keputusan : H0 ditolak jika p-value < α = 0.05
· Kesimpulan : Oleh karena p-value = 0.01 < α = 0.05, maka H0 ditolak sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa data tidak memuat unit root (stasioner)
> m1 <- arima (Polonia,c(1,1,1)) > summary(m1) Call: arima(x = Polonia, order = c(1, 1, 1)) Coefficients: ar1 ma1 0.3401 -0.8141 s.e. 0.1110 0.0615 sigma^2 estimated as 77337: log likelihood = -923.42, aic = 1852.85 Training set error measures: ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE Training set 38.649 277.0391 211.6909 0.7674744 16.12313 0.8839292 ACF1 Training set -0.01387533 > coeftest(m1) z test of coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) ar1 0.340118 0.111002 3.0641 0.002184 ** ma1 -0.814128 0.061527 -13.2320 < 2.2e-16 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 > m2 <- arima (Polonia,c(2,1,1)) > summary(m2) Call: arima(x = Polonia, order = c(2, 1, 1)) Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ma1 0.3380 -0.0315 -0.8037 s.e. 0.1118 0.0978 0.0712 sigma^2 estimated as 77268: log likelihood = -923.37, aic = 1854.75 Training set error measures: ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE Training set 38.43688 276.9161 211.1871 0.7577198 16.08928 0.8818256 ACF1 Training set -0.02954234 > coeftest(m2) z test of coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) ar1 0.337988 0.111750 3.0245 0.00249 ** ar2 -0.031487 0.097763 -0.3221 0.74740 ma1 -0.803729 0.071155 -11.2954 < 2e-16 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 > m3 <- arima (Polonia,c(1,1,2)) > summary(m3) Call: arima(x = Polonia, order = c(1, 1, 2)) Coefficients: ar1 ma1 ma2 0.3059 -0.7766 -0.0276 s.e. 0.2104 0.2024 0.1407 sigma^2 estimated as 77312: log likelihood = -923.41, aic = 1854.81 Training set error measures: ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE Training set 38.57883 276.9943 211.5023 0.7643518 16.10928 0.8831415 ACF1 Training set -0.01994682 > coeftest(m3) z test of coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) ar1 0.305908 0.210427 1.4537 0.1460163 ma1 -0.776581 0.202358 -3.8377 0.0001242 *** ma2 -0.027609 0.140722 -0.1962 0.8444574 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 > m4 <- arima (Polonia,c(3,1,2)) > summary(m4) Call: arima(x = Polonia, order = c(3, 1, 2)) Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 ma2 -0.0335 0.0230 -0.3296 -0.4102 -0.1612 s.e. 0.2503 0.1506 0.0941 0.2635 0.2362 sigma^2 estimated as 70607: log likelihood = -917.6, aic = 1847.21 Training set error measures: ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE Training set 34.20985 264.7117 203.666 0.7190253 15.63094 0.8504204 ACF1 Training set -0.02049689 > coeftest(m4) z test of coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) ar1 -0.033474 0.250278 -0.1337 0.8936014 ar2 0.022996 0.150616 0.1527 0.8786524 ar3 -0.329627 0.094093 -3.5032 0.0004597 *** ma1 -0.410165 0.263507 -1.5566 0.1195745 ma2 -0.161164 0.236157 -0.6824 0.4949577 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 > m5 <- arima (Polonia,c(3,1,1)) > summary(m5) Call: arima(x = Polonia, order = c(3, 1, 1)) Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 0.1145 -0.0538 -0.3405 -0.5704 s.e. 0.1496 0.0959 0.0931 0.1535 sigma^2 estimated as 70810: log likelihood = -917.79, aic = 1845.57 Training set error measures: ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE Training set 32.7519 265.0917 203.2646 0.5891464 15.62125 0.8487447 ACF1 Training set -0.008775029 > coeftest(m5) z test of coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) ar1 0.114483 0.149636 0.7651 0.4442255 ar2 -0.053762 0.095923 -0.5605 0.5751568 ar3 -0.340451 0.093111 -3.6564 0.0002558 *** ma1 -0.570434 0.153499 -3.7162 0.0002022 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 |
Oleh karena AIC lebih kecil, BIC/SBC lebih kecil, dan uji diagnostik terpenuhi, maka model terbaik yang dapat dipilih adalah ARIMA (3,1,1).
> auto.arima(Polonia) Series: Polonia ARIMA(3,1,1) with drift Coefficients: ar1 ar2 ar3 ma1 drift 0.1538 -0.0407 -0.3319 -0.6327 11.3727 s.e. 0.1421 0.0959 0.0947 0.1434 7.0803 sigma^2 estimated as 72290: log likelihood=-916.63 AIC=1845.27 AICc=1845.95 BIC=1862.52 |
Kesimpulan:
Berdasarkan output di atas, maka model ARIMA(3,1,1) yang diperoleh dapat
ditulis secara matematis seperti berikut.
(1 + 0.1538 B – 0.0407 B2 – 0.3319 B3 ) (1 – B) Yt = (1 – 0.6327 B) at ,
atau
Yt = 0.8462 Yt-1
+ 0.1945 Yt-2 +
0.2912 Yt-3 – 0.3319 Yt-4 +
at – 0.6327
at -1 ,
dengan Yt adalah data asli pada waktu ke‐t.
Ø Forecasting
> forecast(m5) Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95 133 1813.814 1472.791 2154.837 1292.2648 2335.364 134 1722.366 1334.140 2110.591 1128.6259 2316.106 135 1623.372 1207.393 2039.351 987.1863 2259.558 136 1651.404 1233.736 2069.072 1012.6360 2290.172 137 1691.069 1265.885 2116.253 1040.8067 2341.332 138 1727.806 1290.389 2165.222 1058.8345 2396.777 139 1720.335 1260.693 2179.977 1017.3736 2423.297 140 1704.001 1226.319 2181.683 973.4488 2434.553 141 1690.026 1197.788 2182.263 937.2137 2442.838 142 1691.847 1188.529 2195.165 922.0885 2461.606 > plot(forecast(m5))
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